Sunday, February 19, 2006
So where exactly are all the world's reserves going?
So where exactly are all the world's reserves going?: "We don't yet formally know the BEA's estimate for the end of the year current account deficit, but we have a pretty good idea. We also now have a lot of data about how the US financed its current account deficit (try selling debt to foreign investors). One thing is already clear. There is going to be a big fall off in recorded central bank flows to the US. A really big fall off. In 2004, central banks provided the US with close to $400 billion in financing -- something the President's Council of Economic Advisors somehow forget to mention in their report. The 2005 TIC data shows that central banks bought only about $115b billion in long-term securities, down from $236b in 2004. Add in the fact that in 2005 central banks seem to have reduced their holdings of short-term treasuries by $43 billion and it seems, in net, central bank holdings of US securities increased by only $71-72 billion (v. $324 billion or so in 2004). Foreign central bank's 'onshore' dollar deposits are up by 19.2 billion in the first three quarters 2005 - so a reasonable estimate for the full year total is $26.6 billion (v $70b in 2004). That would put total recorded central bank financing of the US - if "